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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.