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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."